Complex Bush diplomacy? A piece on Stratfor (subs) has an interesting analysis of why Wolfowitz may be moving from Defense. It says: “by firing Wolfowitz, Bush is making a substantial gesture toward Muslim analysts, for whom Wolfowitz's power has become a fundamental belief. Bush now appears to be making a gesture that he is shifting policy from a rigid war-fighting strategy to a political strategy.”

It continues: “at a time when the administration is looking for negotiating partners in the region, Wolfowitz's head on a platter is a way to signal U.S. willingness to talk. Sending Wolfowitz off to the World Bank makes negotiations easier.”

The piece says the appointment may be part of Bush “having fun” in his second term by causing “apoplexy in the international community”. Bush may even make domestic political capital out of it. This is because “the appointment is certain to infuriate supporters of the World Bank which will cause them to universally condemn it”, paradoxically increasing support for Bush back home.

Stratfor does not find any logical reason for the Wolfowitz appointment. “He has never struck us as a man who was deeply concerned with micro-development projects for abused women in Bangladesh. Demonstrating that God -- or George W. Bush -- has a superb sense of humor, Wolfowitz will now worry about things like this rather than the deployment of carrier battle groups”.

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Alex Wilks ~ March 17, 2005

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